歐洲中央銀行預測歐元區2009年實質GDP年增率介於-3.2%-2.2%之間,2010年則在-0.7% +0.7%之間

歐洲中央銀行在宣布貨幣決策當天,都會召開記者會,說明其決策所根據的理由,並接受記者即席問答。在200935日記者會的現場開場致辭中,歐洲中央銀行預測歐元區2009年實質GDP年增率介於-3.2%-2.2%之間,2010年則在-0.7% +0.7%之間。以下為開場致辭全文。

 

Introductory statement with Q&A

(記者會)開場致辭和即席問答

 

Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB,

Jean-Claude Trichet 歐洲中央銀行總裁

 

Lucas Papademos, Vice President of the ECB

Lucas Papademos 歐洲中央銀行副總裁

 

Frankfurt am Main, 5 March 2009 Frankfurt

法蘭克福總部,200935

 

 

Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to today’s press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the President of the Eurogroup, Prime Minister Juncker, and Commissioner Almunia.

女士、先生們:副總裁和我非常高興歡迎你們參加我們今天的記者會。我們現在將報告今天理事會議的結果,今天的會議,歐元國集團主席Juncker總理和歐盟執行委員Almunia也列席參加。

 

On the basis of its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided today to reduce the key ECB interest rates by a further 50 basis points. This decision brings the total reduction in the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem since 8 October 2008 to 275 basis points.

根據其定期性的經濟和貨幣分析,理事會今天決定進一步調降歐元體系主要融通操作最低利率50個基點,總計自2008108日以來,歐元體系主要融通操作利率已調降275個基點。

 

Overall, inflation rates have decreased significantly and are now expected to remain well below 2% over 2009 and 2010. This outlook for inflation is due to the fall in commodity prices and diminishing domestic price and cost pressures, reflecting the severe downturn in economic activity. Indeed, recent economic data releases and survey information add further evidence to our assessment that both global and euro area demand are likely to be very weak in 2009.

整體而言,物價上漲率已經顯著降低,現在預期在2009年和2010年一定會維持在低於2%的水準。這項物價展望,係基於原物料商品價格的下降,以及境內物價和成本壓力的持續消退,反映經濟活動的嚴重減緩。事實上,最近發表的經濟數據和調查資料,進一步證實我們的評估,即全球和歐元區的需求,在2009年很可能非常疲弱。

 

Over the course of 2010, the economy is expected to gradually recover. At the same time, available indicators of inflation expectations over the medium to longer term remain firmly anchored in line with the Governing Council’s aim of keeping inflation at rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

2010年的演變方面,預期經濟將逐漸復甦。同時,已經發表的中長期物價膨脹預期心理指標仍受到堅定地維繫,符合理事會在中期間將物價上漲率維持在低於但接近2%的目標。

 

A cross-check with the outcome of the monetary analysis confirms that inflationary pressure has been diminishing. After today’s decision we expect price stability to be maintained over the medium term, supporting the purchasing power of euro area households. The Governing Council will continue to ensure a firm anchoring of medium-term inflation expectations, which supports sustainable growth and employment and contributes to financial stability. Accordingly, we will monitor very closely all developments over the period ahead.

與貨幣分析結果交叉比對,確認物價膨脹的壓力已經在消退。作了今天的決定之後,我們預期在中期間可以維持物價穩定,以支持歐元區家計部門的購買力。理事會將繼續確保中期間物價膨脹預期心理受到堅定的維繫,能支援可支撐的成長和就業水準,並有助於金融穩定。此後,我們仍將密切監控未來期間所有的演變。

 

Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Reflecting the impact of the financial market turmoil, the world economy has weakened substantially in recent months, affecting increasingly also emerging market economies. In a climate of heightened uncertainty, a severe fall in world trade volumes has been accompanied by a pronounced decline in domestic demand in the euro area. As a consequence, euro area real GDP contracted markedly in the fourth quarter of 2008, by 1.5% on a quarterly basis, according to Eurostat’s first estimate. Available data and survey indicators suggest that economic activity in the euro area remained weak in early 2009.  

現在讓我更詳細地說明我們的評估,先由經濟分析開始。受到金融市場動的衝擊,最近數月,世界經濟大幅走弱,對新興市場經濟體的影響日漸增加。在不確定性增高的氛圍裡,世界貿易量劇減,伴隨著歐元區境內需求的顯著減少。影響所及,歐元區實質境內生產毛額在2008年第4季顯著萎縮,依照歐元區統計處初步估計,較上一季縮減1.5%。已經發表的數據和調查資料顯示,歐元區經濟活動在2009年初仍然虛弱。

 

Looking ahead, the Governing Council expects that both global and domestic demand will decline in 2009 but thereafter recover gradually. This assessment is also reflected in the March 2009 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which place annual real GDP growth in a range of -3.2% to -2.2% in 2009, and between -0.7% and +0.7% in 2010. These ranges represent a downward revision of the December 2008 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections.

展望未來,理事會預期全球和境內需求在2009年將會減退,但其後逐漸復甦。這項評估反映在20093月歐洲中央銀行職員對歐元區總體經濟預測中,預估 2009年實質境內生產毛額年增率介於-3.2%-2.2%之間,2010年則在-0.7% +0.7%之間。上述預測,代表向下修正200812月歐元體系職員對總體經濟的預測值。

 

In both 2009 and 2010, the annual GDP growth rate will be significantly reduced by negative carry-over effects from the previous year. The projected gradual recovery in 2010 reflects the effects of the substantial macroeconomic stimulus under way as well as of the extensive policy measures that have been introduced to restore the functioning of the financial system, both inside and outside the euro area. In addition, the fall in commodity prices is expected to support real disposable income and consumption in the period ahead.

2009年和2010年,受到前一年度負面的遞延效果影響,境內生產毛額年增率將顯著降低。預計2010年會逐漸復甦,反映歐元區境內和境外正在進行中的大幅度總體經濟刺激措施,以及被行的恢復金融體系運作的各項廣泛政策措施。  此外,原物料商品價格的下跌,預期會在未來時期支持實質可支配所得和消費。

 

The outlook for the economy continues to be surrounded by uncertainty. In the view of the Governing Council, the risks to the economic outlook now appear to be more balanced. On the one hand, there may be stronger than anticipated positive effects, also on confidence, stemming from the extensive macroeconomic stimulus under way and reflecting other policy measures taken. On the other hand, concerns relate mainly to the potential for a stronger impact on the real economy of the turmoil in financial markets, as well as to the emergence and intensification of protectionist pressures and to possible adverse developments in the world economy stemming from a disorderly correction of global imbalances.

對經濟的這項展望,仍然籠罩在不確定性下。理事會的觀點認為,對經濟展望的各項風險現在似乎比較平衡。一方面,正在進行中的廣泛總體經濟刺激措施,以及被行的其他政策措施,所產生的正面效果,可能比預期強,在增強信心方面也一樣。另一方面,令人擔憂者主要關於:金融市場動對實質經濟的衝擊有可能比較強:保護主義壓力的出現和加劇:以及對全球失衡的失序性修正可能衍生的不利演變。

 

With regard to price developments, annual HICP inflation has been steadily declining since the middle of 2008, when it reached a peak of 4.0%. In February 2009 it was 1.2%, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, broadly unchanged from 1.1% in January. The decline in inflation since last summer primarily reflects the sharp falls in global commodity prices over this period. However, signs of a more broad-based reduction in inflationary risks are also increasingly emerging.  

關於物價變動方面,2008年中以來年「調合消費者物價」年增率已經大幅下滑,早先曾觸及最高點4%。但依照歐盟統計處的速報估計,20092月「調合消費者物價」年增率為1.2%,與1月之1.1%比較,大致維持不變。去年夏季物價年增率下滑,主要反映該段期間全球原物料商品價格的慘跌。然而,層面更廣的物價膨脹風險減低跡象,亦愈來愈明顯。

 

Reflecting these trends, the March 2009 ECB staff inflation projections constitute a significant downward revision compared with the previous projections and foresee annual HICP inflation at between 0.1% and 0.7% in 2009. Owing mainly to base effects stemming from the past behaviour of energy prices, headline annual inflation rates are projected to decline further in the coming months, possibly temporarily reaching negative levels around mid-year. Thereafter, annual inflation is expected to increase again, also owing to base effects stemming from past energy price developments. Accordingly, it is likely that HICP inflation rates will fluctuate noticeably during 2009. Such short-term volatility is, however, not relevant from a monetary policy perspective.

反映這些趨勢,20093月歐洲中央銀行職員對物價年增率的預測值,與先前的預測值比較,呈大幅向下修正。預見2009年「調合消費者物價」年增率介於0.1%0.7%之間。主要歸因於過去的能源價格變動所產生的基期效果,預期未來數月,首要物價年增率將進一步下降,年中時,可能短暫觸及負值水準。其後,物價年增率再度上升,同樣歸因於過去的能源價格演變所產生的基期效果。因此,在2009年間,「調合消費者物價」年增率很可能會顯著波動。然而,這類的短期波動,從貨幣政策觀點,並無關緊要。

 

For 2010, ECB staff project HICP inflation at between 0.6% and 1.4%. This range also represents a substantial downward revision compared with the December 2008 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, mainly reflecting the change in the economic growth outlook. Available forecasts from international organisations have also been revised downwards and broadly confirm an outlook of moderate inflation rates in 2010.

2010年方面,歐洲中央銀行職員預測「調合消費者物價」年增率介於0.6%1.4% 之間。這項區間,與200812月歐元體系職員的總體經濟預測比較,亦呈大幅向下修正,主要反映對經濟成長展望的改變。國際組織已發表的預測也已經向下修正,大致確認對2010年物價會維持溫和的展望。

 

As in the case of growth, a considerable degree of uncertainty surrounds the inflation projections. Risks to these projections are broadly balanced. They relate in particular to the risks to the outlook for economic activity as well as to risks to commodity prices.  

如同經濟成長,相當程度的不確定性籠罩著物價預測。對這些預測的風險大致互相平衡。這些風險尤其與經濟活動展望,以及與原物料商品價格有關。

 

Turning to the monetary analysis, the latest data and estimates provide further evidence of an ongoing deceleration in the underlying pace of monetary expansion in the euro area. This implies a further reduction in inflationary risks in the medium term.  

轉到貨幣分析方面,最近的資料和估計數提供進一步的證據,證明歐元區的貨幣擴張腳步,基本上持續在減速。此隱含在中期間物價膨脹風險進一步減低。

 

The further deceleration in underlying monetary dynamics has contrasted with the high month-to-month volatility of developments in M3 and its components which has been observed since the financial turmoil intensified in September 2008. This relates in particular to marketable instruments, but also to the significant substitution that is taking place between different categories of deposits included in M3. While annual M3 growth declined further, to 5.9%, in January 2009, the annual growth rate of the narrow aggregate M1, which includes the most liquid assets, rose to 5.2%.  

基本面貨幣變動的進一步減速,與M3及其組成項目偏高的月波動度形成對比。這種現象自20089月金融動加劇以來,即已出現。此尤其與上市金融工具有關,此外,也與M3不同的存款組成項目間發生的顯著替代性有關。雖然20091M3年增率進一步下降至5.9%,狹義貨幣總計數M1年增率(包含流動性最高的資產)上升至5.2%

 

Volatility also characterised the flow of MFI loans to the private sector around the turn of the year, with a monthly contraction in the outstanding amount in December followed by a significantly positive flow in January. However, discounting a possible turn-of-the-year effect and looking beyond these latest developments confirms the decline in the growth of bank credit to households and non-financial corporations observed in 2008.

高波動度也反映在年度交替之際存款貨幣機構對民間部門放款流量的變化,在12月,放款餘額較上月縮減,1月放款流量則有顯著正成長。然而,扣除年度交替可能產生的效果,超越這些最近的變動後,確認2008年所觀察到的現象,銀行對家計部門和非金融企業的授信成長在下降。

 

At the same time, it appears that the substantial past reduction in the key ECB interest rates is increasingly being passed through to bank lending rates, indicating that, despite the tensions in financial markets, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is not significantly hampered in the euro area. Still, more data and analysis are needed to firmly assess the outlook for credit in the period ahead.  

同時,過去歐洲中央銀行主要利率的大幅調降,逐漸被反映到銀行放款利率,顯示:儘管金融市場情勢緊張,歐元區的貨幣政策傳遞機制未受顯著影響。當然,仍須有更多的資料和分析,以確切評估未來期間的授信情勢展望。

 

To sum up, inflation rates have decreased significantly and are now expected to remain well below 2% over 2009 and 2010. Recent economic data releases and survey information add further evidence to our assessment that both global and euro area demand are likely to be very weak in 2009. Over the course of 2010, the economy is expected to gradually recover.

總結而言,物價上漲率已經下降,現在預期在2009年和2010年一定會保持在2%以下。最近發表的經濟數據和調查資料為我們的評估加入進一步的證據,亦即,全球和歐元區的需求在2009年很可能非常疲弱。在2010年間,預期經濟會逐漸復甦。

 

At the same time, available indicators of inflation expectations over the medium to longer term remain firmly anchored in line with the Governing Council’s aim of keeping inflation at rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. A cross-check with the outcome of the monetary analysis confirms that inflationary pressure has been diminishing.

同時,已發表的中期間物價膨脹預期心理指標仍受到堅定地維繫,符合理事會在中期間,維持物價上漲率低於,但接近2%的目標。交叉比對貨幣分析的結果,確認物價膨脹壓力已經在降低中。

 

After today’s decision we expect price stability to be maintained over the medium term, supporting the purchasing power of euro area households. The Governing Council will continue to ensure a firm anchoring of medium-term inflation expectations, which supports sustainable growth and employment and contributes to financial stability. Accordingly, we will monitor very closely all developments over the period ahead.

作出今天的決定之後,我們預期在中期間可以維持物價穩定,以支持歐元區家計部門的購買力。理事會將繼續確保在中期間物價膨脹預期心理受到堅定地維繫,藉以促進可支撐的經濟成長和就業,以及有助於金融穩定。此後,我們仍將繼續密切監控未來期間所有的演變。

 

Regarding the fiscal policy responses to the economic downturn, the euro area countries’ updated stability programmes and recent addenda confirm the prospect of a sharp and broad-based deterioration in euro area public finances. A credible commitment to a path of consolidation in order to return to sound fiscal positions, respecting fully the provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact, is necessary to maintain the public’s trust in the sustainability of public finances, which is important both for the economy to recover and for supporting long-term growth.

關於對財政政策對經濟衰退的反應方面,根據歐元區各國最新的穩定方案和最近的討論議題,確認對歐元區各國財政急劇且普遍惡化的展望。因此,有必要作出令人信賴的承諾,朝向強化財政以恢復健全的財政部位,並充分尊重「穩定暨成長協定」的約定條款,以維護社會大眾對財政永續能力的信賴,此對經濟復甦和支援長期經濟成長兩者都很重要。

 

In this respect, we support the Commission’s intention to initiate excessive deficit procedures for several countries. This is crucial to preserve the credibility of the EU fiscal surveillance framework. It is important that clear deadlines are set for correction of the excessive deficits and that consolidation plans are based on firm and well-specified structural measures.  

在這方面,我們支持歐盟執委會對一些國家啟動過度赤字程序的意向。這對維護歐盟財政監控架構的可信賴度至為重要。重要的是,設定修正過度赤字的清楚期限,且強化財政計畫應立基於確切和具體說明的結構調整措施。

 

As regards structural policies, it remains important to pursue economic policies in line with the principle of an open market economy with free competition. In this respect, it is essential that government support measures do not distort competition and delay necessary structural adjustment, and it is of the utmost importance to avoid protectionist measures. Refraining from protectionism will be key to allowing the global economy to overcome the current crisis more rapidly. The successful completion of the Doha round of trade negotiations would also be a milestone towards a more integrated and open world economy for the benefit of all.

在經濟結構政策方面,重要的仍然是所追求的經濟政策,應符合自由競爭的開放性市場經濟原則。在這方面,政府所支持的措施必須扭曲競爭,且不延緩必要的結構調整,最重要的是,避免保護主義措施。克制自己不要行保護主義,是讓全球經濟更快速克服現在危機的關鍵。成功完成多哈回合貿易談判,也會成為朝向更整合和更開放的世界經濟的一個里程碑,以造福全體。

 

We are now at your disposal for questions.

我們現在接受自由發問。