歐洲中央銀行預期在2009年下半年物價上漲率會再次上升  

歐洲中央銀行在宣布貨幣決策當天,都會召開記者會,說明其決策所根據的理由,並接受記者即席問答。在2009115日的記者會中,歐洲中央銀行預期2009年下半年物價上漲率會再次上升。以下為歐洲中央銀行總裁在記者會現場的開場致辭全文。

 

Introductory statement with Q&A

(記者會)開場致辭和即席問答

 

Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB,

Jean-Claude Trichet 歐洲中央銀行總裁

 

Lucas Papademos, Vice President of the ECB

Lucas Papademos 歐洲中央銀行副總裁

 

Frankfurt am Main , 15 January 2009

法蘭克福總部 2009115

 

Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our first press conference of 2009. Let me therefore wish you all a very Happy New Year. I would also like to take this opportunity to welcome Slovakia as the 16th country to adopt the euro as its currency. Accordingly, Mr Šramko, the Governor of Národná banka Slovenska, became a member of the Governing Council on 1 January 2009 . Following the adoption of the euro by Slovakia there are now 329 million citizens using the euro as their currency.

女士、先生們:副總裁和我非常高興歡迎你們參加我們2009年第一次記者會。因此,讓我祝福你們大家新年快樂!我也想藉這個機會歡迎斯洛伐克成為採用歐元作為國幣的第16個國家。從而,斯洛伐克中央銀行總裁Šramko先生自200911日起成為歐洲中央銀行理事。在斯洛伐克採用歐元之後,現在有3.29億人使用歐元作為國幣。

 

We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by Commissioner Almunia.

我們現在將報告今天理事會議的結果,歐盟執行委員Almunia也列席參加會議。

 

On the basis of its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to reduce the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem by a further 50 basis points, bringing the total reduction since 8 October 2008 to 225 basis points. Today’s decision takes into account that inflationary pressures have continued to diminish, owing in particular to the further weakening in the economic outlook.

根據其定期性的經濟和貨幣分析,理事會決定進一步調降歐元體系主要融通操作最低投標利率50個基點,總計自2008108日以來已調降225個基點。今天的決定,係考慮到物價膨脹的壓力已經繼續降低,尤其是經濟展望繼續進一步趨弱。 

 

Looking forward, we continue to expect inflation rates in the euro area to be in line with price stability over the policy-relevant medium-term horizon, thereby supporting the purchasing power of incomes and savings. After today’s decision we consider risks to price stability over the medium term to be broadly balanced. This takes into account the latest economic data releases and survey information, which add clear further evidence to the assessment that the euro area is experiencing a significant slowdown, largely related to the effects of the intensification and broadening of the financial turmoil.

展望未來,我們繼續預期歐元區的物價上漲率在與政策有關的中期間符合物價穩定原則,藉以維持所得和儲蓄的購買力。在作了今天的決定之後,我們認為在中期間影響物價穩定的各項風險大致被平衡了。這已經把最近發表的經濟數據和調查資料納入考慮,這些證據進一步清楚證明我們的評估,歐元區正在經歷顯著的經濟活動減緩,主要受金融風暴的增強和擴大影響。

 

Both global demand and euro area demand are likely to be dampened for a protracted period. Monetary expansion is moderating further, supporting the assessment that inflationary pressures and risks are diminishing. All in all, the level of uncertainty remains exceptionally high. The Governing Council will continue to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored in line with its medium-term objective of inflation rates below, but close to, 2%. This supports sustainable growth and employment and contributes to financial stability. Accordingly, we will continue to monitor very closely all developments over the period ahead.

全球和歐元區的需求都很可能在很長一段時間內受到壓抑。貨幣總計數的擴張進一步趨緩,可以佐證物價膨脹的壓力和風險正在減少的評估。總之,不確定性的程度保持異常地高。理事會將繼續讓物價膨脹預期心理受到堅定地維繫,以符合在中期間物價上漲率低於但接近2%的目標,俾支援可支撐的經濟成長和就業水準,以及有助於維持金融穩定。此後,我們仍將繼續密切監控未來期間所有的演變。

 

Allow me to explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Since September 2008 the financial market turmoil has intensified and broadened. Tensions have increasingly spilled over from the financial sector into the real economy. As a result, economic activity throughout the world, including in the euro area, has weakened further. In particular, foreign demand for euro area exports has declined, and euro area domestic activity has contracted in the face of weaker demand prospects and tighter financing conditions. The survey data and monthly indicators for November and December that have become available since our last meeting clearly point to a further weakening of economic activity around the turn of the year, indicating the materialisation of previously identified downside risks to activity. 

讓我更詳細地說明我們的評估,先由經濟分析開始。自20089月以來金融市場動盪已經增強且擴大。緊張情勢逐漸地從金融部門波及實質經濟。結果,世界各地的經濟活動,包括歐元區在內,已經進一步減緩。尤其是,對歐元區出口的需求已經減少,而歐元區境內的活動,在面對比較弱的需求前景和比較緊的融資情況下,也已經開始收縮。自我們上次會議以後,已知的調查資料和1112月發表的各項指標,均清楚地指出,在年關交替期間,經濟活動進一步減弱,顯示原先所指出的經濟活動下探風險已經成真。

 

Looking further ahead, on the basis of our current analysis and assessment, we continue to see global economic weakness and very sluggish domestic demand persisting in the coming quarters as the impact of the financial tensions on activity continues. At the same time, we expect the fall in commodity prices to support real disposable income in the period ahead. Furthermore, the euro area should over time reap the full benefit from the effects of policy measures announced over recent weeks.

往更遠處看,根據我們現在的分析和評估,未來各季,隨著金融緊張情勢持續衝擊經濟活動,我們將繼續看見全球經濟疲弱和遲緩的境內需求,仍將揮之不去。另一方面,我們也預期原物料商品價格的下滑,在未來期間,將支持實質可支配所得。此外,隨著時間經過,歐元區應該可以收割最近數週宣布的政策措施效果的全部利益。

 

In the view of the Governing Council, this outlook for the economy remains surrounded by an exceptionally high degree of uncertainty. Overall, risks to economic growth remain clearly on the downside. They relate mainly to the potential for a stronger impact on the real economy of the turmoil in financial markets, as well as to concerns about the emergence and intensification of protectionist pressures and to possible adverse developments in the world economy stemming from a disorderly correction of global imbalances.

理事會的觀點認為,對經濟的這項展望,仍然籠罩在異常高的不確定性下。整體而言,對經濟成長的風險顯然仍維持負向,主要因金融市場動盪對實質經濟仍存在產生更強力衝擊的可能性,以及關切貿易保護主義者壓力的出現和增強,和無秩序地修正全球失衡所可能衍生對世界經濟的不利演變。

 

It is crucial that all parties concerned make their contribution to lay sound foundations for a sustainable recovery. For this to materialise as early as possible, it is of the utmost importance to maintain discipline and a medium-term perspective in macroeconomic policy-making, pursuing a stability-oriented and sustainable approach. This is the best way to preserve and enhance confidence. The significant measures being implemented by governments to deal with the financial turmoil should help to ensure trust in the financial system and to ease constraints on credit supply to companies and households. 

最為迫切的是,所有相關各方要作出他們的貢獻,以奠下健全的基礎,達到可支撐的經濟復甦。為儘快促其實現,極為重要的是,總體經濟決策應該保持紀律,採取中期觀點,追求以穩定為中心,可以支撐的方法。這是維持並且提高信心的最佳途徑。政府處理金融動盪所執行的重要措施,應有助於確保對金融體系的信賴感,放寬對企業和家計單位信用供給的限制條件。

 

With regard to price developments, annual HICP inflation has declined substantially since the middle of 2008, when it peaked at 4.0%. HICP inflation was 1.6% in December, after 2.1% in November. As we have emphasised on previous occasions, the significant decline in headline inflation in the second half of 2008 reflects mainly the sharp falls in global commodity prices over the past few months. 

關於物價變動方面,2008年中以來年「調合消費者物價」年增率已經大幅下滑,當時曾觸及最高點4%。在12月「調合消費者物價」年增率是1.6%,之前的11月則為2.1%。如同我們在先前所強調的,2008年下半年首要物價指數的大幅下滑,主要反映過去幾個月全球原物料商品價格的慘跌。

 

Looking forward, lower commodity prices and weakening demand confirm that inflationary pressures in the euro area are diminishing. Owing mainly to base effects stemming from the past behaviour of energy prices, headline annual inflation rates are projected to decline further in the coming months, possibly reaching very low levels at mid-year. However, also owing to base effects stemming from past energy price developments, inflation rates are expected to increase again in the second half of the year. Hence it is likely that HICP inflation rates will fluctuate sharply during 2009. Such short-term volatility is, however, not relevant from a monetary policy perspective. Looking over the policy-relevant, medium-term horizon, annual HICP inflation is expected to be in line with price stability. This assessment is supported by available indicators of inflation expectations for the medium term. 

展望未來,比較低的原物料商品價格和趨於疲弱的需求,確認歐元區的物價膨脹壓力正在降低。預期首要物價上漲率在未來幾個月內將進一步下滑,可能在年中到達非常低的水準,這主要從過去能源價格行為所衍生的效果推斷。然而,同樣根據過去能源價格行為所衍生的效果推斷,預期物價上漲率在下半年會再次上升。因此,在 2009年「調合消費者物價」年增率很可能將會大幅波動。然而,這樣的短期波動,從貨幣政策觀點,是無關緊要的。檢視與政策有關的中期間,預期「調合消費者物價」年增率符合物價穩定原則。這項評估係以已知的各項中期間物價上漲預期心理指標作為佐證。

 

Risks to price stability over the medium term are broadly balanced. Unexpected further declines in commodity prices or a stronger than expected slowdown in the economy could put downward pressure on inflation, while upside risks to price stability could materialise particularly if the recent fall in commodity prices were to reverse or if domestic price pressures turn out to be stronger than assumed. It is therefore crucial that price and wage-setters fully live up to their responsibilities. 

中期間影響物價穩定的各項風險因素大致維持平衡。預料之外的原物料商品價格的進一步下滑,或經濟減緩程度比原先預期強,則可能對物價產生向下的壓力。影響物價穩定的推升物價風險因素,則在當最近下降的原物料商品價格產生逆轉,或境內物價上漲壓力強過所設定的假設條件時,特別可能實現。因此,重要的是,訂定價格和薪資的人應充分盡到他們的責任。

 

Turning to the monetary analysis, the latest evidence confirms a moderating rate of monetary expansion in the euro area. Monetary trends therefore support the view that inflationary pressures and risks are diminishing.

轉到貨幣分析方面,最近的證據確認歐元區的貨幣以溫和比率擴張。因此,貨幣成長趨勢可以佐證物價上漲壓力和風險正在降低的論點。

 

In analysing monetary developments it should be recognised that the intensification of the financial market turmoil since mid-September has the potential to affect the evolution of monetary aggregates significantly. Recent money and credit data indicate that this has already had a substantial impact on the behaviour of market participants. Both the broad aggregate M3 and, in particular, the components of M3 that are most closely related to the ongoing financial tensions – such as holdings of money market funds – have shown high month-to-month volatility of late. Overall, however, looking to the extent possible through this volatility, the rate of broad money growth continues to moderate in line with the trend established over the past 18 months, with the intensification of financial tensions since September leading to significant substitution among the components of M3, rather than, at least so far, sharp changes in the trend of M3 itself. 

在分析貨幣變動時,應該認識到9月中以來金融市場動盪的增強,還可能會顯著影響貨幣總計數的變動。最近的貨幣和信用數據顯示,已經對市場參與者的行為產生相當大的衝擊。近來,廣義的貨幣總計數M3,尤其是與持續中的市場緊張情勢密切相關的M3組成項目 -- 貨幣市場基金的持有餘額 -- 兩者都顯示很高的月波動度。然而,整體而言,儘量透視這種波動度的背後,仍然可以看到廣義貨幣的成長率繼續維持溫和,與過去18個月以來所建立的趨勢保持一致, 9月以來,金融緊張情勢的增強,導致M3的組成項目產生明顯的替代效果,但至少截至目前,沒有見到M3本身趨勢的大幅變動。

 

Turning to the evolution of bank loans, the tightening of financing conditions resulting from the intensification of the financial tensions has contributed to a slowdown in the flow of monetary financial institution (MFI) loans to the non-financial private sector in recent months. More data and further analysis are necessary to form a robust judgement about the severity and scope of credit constraints and their possible implications for economic activity. 

轉到銀行放款的演變方面,金融緊張情勢的增強,導致融資條件被收緊,使得近幾個月來存款貨幣機構對非金融民間部門的放款流量減緩。惟需要更多的資料和進一步的分析,才能對授信緊縮,及其對經濟活動的可能影響的嚴重程度和範圍,作出可靠的判斷。

 

To sum up, we decided to reduce the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem by a further 50 basis points, bringing the total reduction since 8 October 2008 to 225 basis points. Today’s decision takes into account that inflationary pressures have continued to diminish, owing in particular to the further weakening in the economic outlook.

總結而言,我們決定進一步調降歐元體系主要融通操作最低投標利率50個基點,總計自2008108日以來調降225個基點。今天的決定,係考慮到物價膨脹壓力已經持續減低,而其背後原因,特別是因為經濟展望會進一步疲弱。

 

The Governing Council recalls its operational decision, taken on 18 December 2008 , to widen again the corridor formed by the rates on the Eurosystem’s standing facilities as of 21 January 2009 . Looking forward, we continue to expect inflation rates in the euro area to be in line with price stability over the policy-relevant medium-term horizon, thereby supporting the purchasing power of incomes and savings.

理事會重提20081218日所作的操作決定,亦即將自2009121日起再次擴大歐元體系常設存放款服務的利率差距。展望未來,我們繼續預期歐元區在與政策有關的中期間,物價上漲率符合物價穩定原則,因此,得以支撐所得和儲蓄的購買力。

 

After today’s decision we consider risks to price stability over the medium-term to be broadly balanced. This takes into account the latest economic data releases and survey information, which add clear further evidence to the assessment that the euro area is experiencing a significant slowdown, largely related to the effects of the intensification and broadening of the financial turmoil. Both global demand and euro area demand are likely to be dampened for a protracted period. A cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with that of the monetary analysis confirms this view.

作出今天的決定之後,我們認為在中期間對物價穩定的風險大致維持平衡。這已經將最近發表的經濟數據和調查資料納入考慮,這些資訊為我們的評估加入進一步的證據,清楚地證明歐元區正在經歷明顯的經濟活動減緩,主要受金融動盪的增強和擴大影響。全球和歐元區的需求很可能被壓抑並拖延相當長時間。交叉比對經濟分析與貨幣分析的結果後,確認這個觀點無誤。

 

Monetary expansion is moderating further, supporting the assessment that inflationary pressures and risks are diminishing. All in all, the level of uncertainty remains exceptionally high. The Governing Council will continue to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored in line with its medium-term objective of inflation rates below, but close to, 2%. This supports sustainable growth and employment and contributes to financial stability. Accordingly, we will continue to monitor very closely all developments over the period ahead.

貨幣的擴張正在進一步減緩,佐證我們有關物價膨脹壓力和風險正在減少的評估。歸結而言,不確定性的程度保持異常高水準。理事會將會繼續讓物價膨脹預期心理,堅定地維繫在符合中期目標的水準,即物價上漲率低於,但接近2%。藉以促進可支撐的經濟成長和就業,以及有助於金融穩定。此後,我們仍將繼續密切監控未來期間所有的演變。

 

Regarding fiscal policies, the Governing Council welcomes the European Council’s reconfirmation of its full commitment to sustainable public finances. In this respect, the current economic situation calls for particular prudence with regard to the adoption of extensive fiscal stimulus measures, taking into account the particular fiscal situation in each country. The operation of automatic stabilisers will provide a relatively large and powerful fiscal impulse to the weakening economy, in addition to already announced expansionary fiscal policy measures and the government support for the banking sector.

關於財政政策方面,理事會歡迎歐盟理事會再次確認其完全致力於追求可支撐的財政政策。在這方面,以現在的經濟情況,在採行廣泛的財政刺激措施時,須特別審慎,並考慮到不同國家的特殊財政情況。除了已經宣布的財政擴張政策措施和政府對銀行業部門的支持外,自動穩定機制的運作,將會對減弱中的經濟提供相當大且有力的財政刺激。

 

Taken together, the additional measures decided so far put a considerable burden on public finances in a large number of euro area countries. If not reversed in due time, this will negatively affect in particular the younger and future generations. It is therefore essential to return to a credible commitment to medium-term budgetary objectives as soon as possible. The significant fiscal loosening and the implied increase in government debt should in any case not risk undermining public confidence in the sustainability of public finances, thereby detracting from the effectiveness of a fiscal stimulus.

總結而言,截至目前已經決定的額外措施,對很多的歐元區國家財政帶來相當大的負擔,如果不在適當的時間內扭轉,這將特別會對年輕和未來世代帶來負面的影響。因此有必要儘速恢復對中期間預算目標的可信賴承諾。財政的明顯放鬆和所隱含的政府債務增加,無論如何都不應該危及社會大眾對政府財政持續能力的信心,因而減損財政刺激措施的效力。

 

Turning to structural policies, the ongoing period of weak economic activity and high uncertainty about the economic outlook imply the need to strengthen the resilience and flexibility of the euro area economy. Product market reforms should foster competition and speed up effective restructuring. Labour market reforms should help to facilitate appropriate wage-setting, as well as labour mobility across sectors and regions. The current situation should therefore be seen as a catalyst to foster the implementation of necessary domestic reforms in line with the principle of an open market economy with free competition.

轉到經濟結構政策方面,經濟活動的長時間弱勢和經濟展望的高度不確定性,隱含需要加強歐元區經濟的抗壓性和彈性。產品市場改革措施應強化競爭和加速進行有效的結構改造。勞動市場改革措施應有助於推動適當的薪資設定機制,以及勞工在各產業部門間和各地區間的機動性。因此,現在的情勢,應該被視為是一個催化劑,以促進各項必要的境內改革措施,並符合自由競爭的開放性市場經濟原則。

 

We are now at your disposal for questions.

我們現在接受自由發問。