南非中央銀行於2009.2.5調降貨幣政策利率1個百分點

南非中央銀行於200925日調降附買回交易利率1個百分點,至年利率10.5%。以下為新聞稿全文:

 

2009-02-05: Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee

2009-02-05:貨幣政策委員會聲明

 

Introduction

簡介

 

Since the previous meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), domestic inflation has continued on its downward trend. A further decline is expected in the January data when the reweighting and rebasing of the CPI index implemented by Statistics South Africa comes into effect. With respect to economic growth, the domestic economy is being adversely affected by the continuing turbulence in the global economy. The widening domestic output gap and declining international commodity prices are expected to exert further downward pressure on inflation going forward. Nevertheless some risks to the inflation outlook remain and the MPC had to assess these conflicting risks against the backdrop of a highly uncertain and volatile international environment.

自貨幣政策委員會前次會議以來,國內物價持續走低。預期1月份數據會進一步下降。南非統計局重新調整消費者物價指數的權值和基期,也自1月份開始適用。經濟成長方面,國內經濟受到全球經濟持續動蕩的不利影響。而國內產出落差的擴大,和國際原物料商品價格的下滑,預期在未來會繼續對物價施加向下的壓力。雖然如此,對物價的展望仍存在一些風險,貨幣政策委員必須在高度不確定和大幅波動的國際環境下,評估這些相互矛盾的風險。

 

Recent developments in inflation

最近物價的演變

 

CPIX inflation (headline inflation excluding mortgage interest cost) has been moderating consistently since August 2008 when it measured 13,6 per cent. In November and December 2008 inflation had declined to 12,1 per cent and 10,3 per cent respectively. Electricity, food, and clothing and footwear prices were the main contributors to the inflation outcomes in these months, having increased at year-on-year rates in excess of 15 per cent. Petrol prices increased by 25,8 per cent in November, but declined by 1,8 per cent in December. If food and petrol were excluded, CPIX inflation would have measured 8,7 per cent in December.  

排除房貸利息後的消費者物價總指數(CPIX),20088月曾達13.6%,之後持續走緩。在200811月和12月物價年增率分別下降至12.1%10.3%。這些月份的物價有這種結果,主要來自電、食物、衣著、和鞋類價格的貢獻,年增率均超過15%11月汽油價格上漲25.8%,但是在12月則下跌1.8%。如果不計食物和汽油價格,則12CPIX年增率為8.7%

 

Producer price inflation also moderated in the past two months, declining to a year-on-year rate of 11,0 per cent in December. Food price increases continued to moderate: agricultural product prices were unchanged in December, while manufactured food price inflation declined to a year-on-year rate of 12,8 per cent in the same month.  

生產者物價在過去二個月也減緩,12月年增率下滑至11.0%。食物價格的上漲繼續減緩;農產品價格在12月未變動,食物加工品價格年增率則下降至12.8%

 

The outlook for inflation

物價展望

 

The most recent central forecast of the Bank is similar to that presented to the MPC in December. Partly as a result of the reweighting and rebasing of the new targeted inflation index, CPI inflation is expected to decline further and average 7,5 per cent in the first quarter of 2009, and to decline to below the upper end of the inflation target range during the third quarter of the year when it is expected to average 5,2 per cent. Inflation is then forecast to increase again and to breach the upper end of the target range in the first quarter of 2010, mainly as a result of technical base effects. Thereafter inflation is expected to return to within the target range and remain there until the end the forecast period when it is expected to average 5,5 per cent. The simulation results of the model make provision for the most recent trends of actual and preliminary data that have become available from Statistics South Africa since the previous MPC meeting.

南非準備銀行最新的中心預測值,與12月送給貨幣政策委員會者類似。部分由於作為政策目標的新物價指數重新調整權值和基期,預期消費者物價年增率會進一步下滑,2009年第一季平均為7.5%。本年第三季會下降至目標區上限之下,預期平均為5.2%。預測物價年增率在2010年第一季會再上升,並突破目標區上限,主要由於技術性的基期效果。之後,預期物價年增率會回到目標區內,並維持在該水準直到預測期間結束,預期平均數將為5.5%。上述模型的模擬結果,已經將自上次貨幣政策委員會議以來,從南非統計局獲得的實際和初步最新數據納入考慮。

 

Market indicators also reflect a moderation in expected inflation. Inflation expectations as measured by the yield differential between conventional government bonds and inflation-linked bonds have remained within the inflation target range. The Reuters consensus survey conducted in December indicates that analysts expect inflation to average 6,4 per cent in 2009 and 5,8 per cent in 2010.  

市場指標也反映物價膨脹預期走緩。由傳統公債與物價指數聯結公債的利率差距衡量得出的物價年增率預期值,維持在物價年增率目標區內。而路透社在12月所作的意見調查顯示,分析家們預期物價年增率在2009年平均為6.4%,在2010年平均則為5.8%

 

The volatile exchange rate of the rand continues to pose the main upside risk to the inflation outlook. The rand is currently trading against the US dollar at levels similar to those prevailing at the time of the previous MPC meeting. During December 2008 the rand appreciated against the US dollar and reached a level of R9,30 in the first week of January. This move was mainly a result of a weaker US dollar which depreciated to US$1,47 against the euro. Renewed risk aversion in international markets and a stronger US dollar in January resulted in the rand returning to current levels of around R10,00. The rand has appreciated marginally on a trade-weighted basis since the previous meeting. rand

南非幣匯率波動劇烈,繼續成為物價展望的主要向上風險。南非幣現在對美元的交易價位,與上次貨幣政策委員會議當時的水準類似。在200812月間南非幣對美元升值,2009年第一曾到達9.3南非幣的水準;這次變動主要起因於美元走弱,貶值到1.47美元兌1歐元。隨後,國際市場厭惡風險情緒重新出現,美元在1月走強,南非幣匯率回到現在約10南非幣兌1美元水準。

 

The risks to the inflation outlook posed by oil and food prices appear to have subsided somewhat. Food prices continued to moderate at the production price level but these favourable developments have not yet been seen at the consumer price level. Spot and futures prices of maize and wheat remain well below the average price level in 2008 and some relief at the consumer price level is expected in the coming months.

原油和食物類價格對物價展望所造成的風險,似乎已經平息一些。食物類價格在生產者物價階段,繼續走緩,但這些有利的演變,尚未在消費者物價階段看到。玉米和小麥的現貨和期貨價格維持在遠低於2008年平均價格的水準,預期在未來幾個月對消費者物價會有一些緩作用。

 

The price of Brent crude oil, which reached a low of US$34 per barrel during December 2008, averaged around US$41 for the month. This, along with the termination of the slate levy, allowed for a further reduction in domestic petrol prices of R1,34 per litre in January. However, international oil prices recovered somewhat in January and averaged almost US$45 per barrel during that month. As a consequence, the domestic price of petrol was increased by 61 cents per litre in February. The outlook for oil prices remains uncertain, but prices are expected to remain relatively subdued as a result of weakening global growth.

布蘭原油價格在200812月曾觸及每桶34美元的低點。當月平均價格為41美元。加上「差額捐」的停,讓國內汽油價格可以從1月每公升1.34南非幣進一步下降。然而,國際油價在1月稍微回漲,當月平均每桶45美元,影響所及,汽油的國內價格在2月每公升上漲61分。油價展望維持不確定,但受全球經濟成長走弱影響,預期仍然會維持相對疲弱。

 

The domestic economy continues to show signs of slowing, following the 0,2 per cent annualised growth recorded in the third quarter of 2008. The composite leading and coincident business cycle indicators of the Bank point to a continuation of this trend. Other high frequency indicators are consistent with this outlook. The physical volume of manufacturing production declined at a year-on-year rate of 4,4 per cent in November 2008, while the latest Investec/BER Purchasing Managers Index indicates that the outlook for the manufacturing sector remains negative. The utilisation of production capacity in manufacturing declined by 3,4 percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 82 per cent. Mining output contracted by 6,1 in November compared to the previous year, while the real value of total building plans approved declined by 25,3 per cent over the same period.

2008年第3季經濟成長率為0.2%之後,國內經濟繼續出現減緩訊號。南非準備銀行的綜合領先和同時景氣循環指標均指出這個趨勢仍在持續。其他高頻次指標也與這項展望一致。製造業生產量在200811月較上年同月減少4.4%,而最新的Investec/BER採購經理人指數顯示,製造業部門的前景保持負向。製造業產能利用率在2008年第4季下降3.4個百分點,成為82%。礦業產出在200811月較上年同月萎縮6.1%;同期間核准的建築計畫實值價值則衰減25.3%

 

Household consumption expenditure also remains under pressure. Real wholesale trade sales increased slightly in the year to November 2008, but real retail sales declined by 4 per cent over the same period. Motor vehicle sales contracted at a year-on-year rate of 35,4 per cent in January, with commercial vehicles sales declining by 41 per cent. Motor vehicle exports, which remained strong in 2008, also moderated and the industry expects larger declines in the coming months. Exports in general are expected to remain under pressure given the adverse global conditions. However preliminary data indicates that the deficit on the trade account of the balance of payments probably contracted during the final quarter of 2008.

家庭消費支出也仍在承受壓力。批發交易實值銷售金額在2008年前11個月略較上年同期增加,但同期間零售交易實值銷售金額則減少4%。機動車輛銷售金額在1月較上年同月萎縮35.4%;商用車輛銷售金額則減少41%。機動車輛出口在2008年雖保持強勁,但成長已經減緩,業者預期在未來數月會出現比較大的衰退幅度。在不利的全球經濟環境下,預期出口大體上仍受到壓力。然而,初步數據顯示,2008年最後一季國際收支的商品交易帳戶赤字很可能縮減。

 

Household consumption expenditure may also be affected by remuneration trends and employment growth. According to Andrew Levy Employment Publications, the level of wage settlements for the year 2008 amounted to 9,8 per cent, compared to an average inflation rate of 11,3 per cent. Nominal unit labour cost increases in the third quarter of 2008 measured 12,4 per cent. Employment growth has also been impacted by the slowing economy. In the third quarter of 2008, non-agricultural employment increased by one per cent, compared to 3,9 per cent in the first quarter of that year. Private sector employment contracted in the second and third quarters.

家計部門消費支出也可能受到薪資變動趨勢和就業成長情況的。依照Andrew Levy就業專刊,2008年薪資談判結果為加薪9.8%,低於平均物價上漲率11.3%。名目的單位勞工成本在2008年第3季增加12.4%。就業成長率也受到經濟減緩的衝擊,在2008年第3季,非農業部門就業人數增加1%,同年第1季則增加3.9$ 民間部門就業人數在第3季和第4季均萎縮。

 

The subdued trend in household consumption expenditure and the stricter credit criteria applied by banks to both households and corporates have been reflected in a further moderation in the growth of credit extension to the private sector. Growth over twelve months in total loans and advances by banks to the private sector declined to 14,4 per cent in December 2008. Most categories of loans have exhibited declines in growth.

家計部門消費支出疲弱不振的走勢,以及銀行對家計部門和企業授信標準的收緊,已經反映到對民間部門授信成長進一步減緩上。200812月銀行對民間部門放款和融資總餘額年增率下降至14.4%,大多數放款類別年增率均呈減緩

 

High consumption expenditure is expected to remain under pressure from negative wealth effects resulting from adverse asset price developments. The all-share index on the JSE Limited remained volatile in line with global market turbulence. The housing market has also remained subdued, with the various house price indices indicating real price declines.

預期高消費者支出會持續承受壓力,起因於不利的資產價格變動所產生的負面財富效果。約翰尼斯堡證券交易所全部股票指數仍隨著全球市場動蕩而大幅波動。房屋市場也持續疲弱不振,各種不同的房價指數均顯示實值房價下跌。

 

The outlook for the world economy has deteriorated further as a result of the continued difficulties being experienced by the global financial system. The International Monetary Fund significantly downgraded its forecast for global growth in 2009 to 0,5 per cent. Many of the advanced economies are expected to experience negative growth rates in the coming months, while growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies have also deteriorated. As a result of these widening output gaps and declining commodity prices, world inflation pressures have subsided.  

由於全球金融體系不斷遭遇困難,導致世界經濟展望進一步惡化。國際貨幣基金大幅調降其2009年全球經濟成長率預測值至0.5%。未來數月,預期許多先進經濟體會經歷負成長;新興市場經濟體和發展中經濟體的成長展望也惡化。由於產出落差擴大,原物料商品價格下滑,世界物價膨脹壓力已經消退。

 

Monetary policy stance

貨幣政策態度

 

The Monetary Policy Committee has decided to reduce the repurchase rate by 100 basis points to 10,5 per cent per annum with effect from 6 February 2009. The MPC will continue to monitor domestic and global developments in order to decide on the most appropriate monetary policy stance going forward.

貨幣政策委員會決定調降附買回交易利率100個基點,至年利率10.5%,自2009 26日起生效。貨幣政策委員會將繼續監控國內和全球演變,以便在未來採取最適當的貨幣政策態度。

 

TT Mboweni

GOVERNOR

 

總裁TT Mboweni