新加坡金融管理局2009.4.14宣布維持貨幣政策匯率升值幅度為零

 

MAS MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT

新加坡金融管理局貨幣政策聲明

 

Date: 14 Apr 2009

日期:2009414

 

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INTRODUCTION 簡介

 

1. In October 2008, MAS shifted its policy stance to a zero percent appreciation of the S$NEER policy band. The decision was taken amidst easing external and domestic inflationary pressures, and a weakening global economic environment.  

1. 200810月,新加坡金融管理局變更其政策態度,將星幣名目有效匯率政策區間調整為0升值。此項決策背景為,國、內外物價膨脹壓力減緩中,且全球經濟環境趨於疲弱。

 

Chart 1
Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER)

1 名目有效匯率(SNEER

 

 

 

 

2. Since the last policy review, the S$NEER (Chart 1) has largely fluctuated in the lower half of the policy band. This reflected a number of factors, including the general strength of the US$, continued risk aversion by global investors and the erosion in domestic economic conditions. With the fall in global interest rates, the domestic three-month interbank rate also declined, from 1.88% in September 2008 to 0.69% at end-March 2009.

2. 自上次貨幣政策檢討以來,星幣名目有效匯率詳圖1)大致在政策區間的中間值以下波動。此反映許多因素,包括美元的普遍走強、全球投資人持續厭惡風險、和國內經濟情況的惡化。隨著全球利率的下滑,國內三個月期同業拆款利率也從20089月的1.88%下跌至20093月底的0.69%

 

OUTLOOK FOR 2009

2009年展望

 

3. The Singapore economy recorded a broad-based contraction of 16.4% on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised (q-o-q SAAR) basis in Q4 2008. Amidst the unprecedented collapse in global demand, trade-related activities such as manufacturing, wholesale trade and transport services decelerated sharply, while the financial sector was adversely affected by the turmoil in international financial markets. According to the Advance Estimates released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry today, GDP contracted by a further 19.7% q-o-q SAAR in Q1 2009, with the decline accentuated by a reduction in pharmaceutical output. Both electronics manufacturing and financial services experienced a slower rate of contraction in early 2009 compared to Q4 2008.  

3. 依照季節調整後年增率資料,顯示2008年第4季新加坡廣義經濟萎縮了16.4%。在全球需求發生空前崩盤中,貿易相關活動,諸如製造業、批發貿易業和運輸服務業銳減,而金融業部門亦受到國際金融市場動的不利影響。根據今天貿易工業部發表的預估,2009年第1季經季節調整後國內生產毛額年增率進一步萎縮19.7%;由於製藥業產出減少,加重了跌勢。但電子製造業和金融服務業兩者在2009初,與2008年第4季比較,萎縮幅度已經縮減。

 

4. Looking ahead, some moderation in the rate of decline in economic activity around the world is expected following the steep fall since the end of last year. A number of leading indicators have recently picked up slightly, and consumption spending has held up somewhat better than expected, particularly in the US. While this is encouraging, considerable downside risks to growth remain. Job losses have been significant, and segments of the broader credit market continue to be impaired. Against this backdrop and in view of the sharp fall in domestic economic output over the past two quarters, Singapore’s GDP growth forecast for 2009 has been lowered to between -9% and -6%.  

4. 展望未來,自去年底以來急劇下滑後,預期全球經濟活動的衰退比率會有一些緩和。許多領先指標最近已經略為回升,且消費支出持穩情況比預期為佳,尤其是在美國。儘管有上述令人鼓舞的跡象,經濟成長仍然存在相當大的負面風險。就業流失情況顯著,且廣義授信市場的某些部門仍然未脫離困境。在這樣的背景下,且考慮到過去兩季國內經濟產出大幅減少,將新加坡2009年國內生產毛額年增率預測值調降為負9%至負6%之間.

 

5. In the meantime, CPI inflation has slowed significantly to 2.4% year-on-year in Jan-Feb 2009, from 5.4% in Q4 last year. This was largely due to the sharp decline in the prices of direct oil-related items, such as petrol, as well as a moderation in food price increases. In addition, price increases of several retail items such as clothing and household durables have eased. CPI inflation will continue to fall in the coming months, reflecting a combination of lower commodity prices and increased slack in the domestic economy. Domestic cost pressures are moderating, as evidenced by the fall in rentals and more subdued wage increases. With the high base in 2008, headline inflation would temporarily turn negative in certain months this year. For the whole of 2009, the CPI inflation forecast is unchanged at -1% to 0%. 1

5. 同時,消費者物價年增率已經從去年第4季的5.4%,顯著減緩為200912月的2.4%。這主要由於與石油有直接關聯項目價格的急劇下跌,例如汽油,加上食物價格的增加幅度減緩。除此之外,許多零售項目,例如衣服和家用耐久財的價格上漲幅度也減緩。未來數月,消費者物價年增率將會繼續下降,反映原物料商品價格降低和國內經濟衰退幅度增加。國內的成本壓力也在減緩中,從租金下跌,及薪資增加幅度更為疲弱,可為佐證。由於2008 年的基期比較高,今年有幾個月首要消費者物價年增率會暫時轉為負值。就2009年全年而言,消費者物價年增率預測值不變,介於負1%0%之間。(附註1)

 

MONETARY POLICY

貨幣政策

 

6. Amidst the global downturn and continuing stresses in world financial markets, external and domestic inflationary pressures are dissipating. Meanwhile, the domestic economy is likely to remain below potential till a decisive recovery is seen in Singapore’s export markets.

6. 處在全球衰退和世界金融市場緊俏環境中,外部和國內的物價膨脹壓力逐漸消散。同時,國內經濟有可能維持在低於潛能成長率水準,直到新加坡的出口市場看到決定性的復甦為止。

 

7. In our assessment, the current level of the S$NEER is appropriate for maintaining domestic price stability over the medium term, taking into account the prospects for growth in the Singapore economy. MAS will therefore re-centre the exchange rate policy band to the prevailing level of the S$NEER, while keeping the zero percent appreciation path. The width of the band will remain unchanged. The Singapore economy continues to be anchored by sound fundamentals and a resilient financial system. There is therefore no reason for any undue weakening of the Singapore dollar.

7. 依據我們的評估,就維持國內物價穩定而言,現行的星幣名目有效匯率水準是適當的,此已經考慮到新加坡的經濟成長前景。因此,新加坡金融管理局的貨幣政策匯率區間將重新以現行的星幣名目有效匯率作為中心,同時維持升值百分比為零的走勢。政策匯率區間寬度將保持不變。新加坡經濟仍繼續受到健全的基本面和有抵抗力的金融市場所維繫,因此,星幣沒有理由有任何不適當的走弱。  

 

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1 The 2009 CPI inflation forecast was revised to -1.0% to 0% at MTI’s Annual Economic Survey media briefing on 21 Jan 2009.

附註1:貿易工業部在2009121「年度經濟調查」媒體簡報會中,將2009 年消費者物價年增率預測值修正為負1.0%0%之間。