World Economic Outlook -- Sustaining the Recovery

世界經濟展望維持復甦

 

October 2009

200910

 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

內容摘要

 

After a deep global recession, economic growth has turned positive, as wide-ranging public intervention has supported demand and lowered uncertainty and systemic risk in financial markets. The recovery is expected to be slow, as financial systems remain impaired, support from public policies will gradually have to be withdrawn, and households in economies that suffered asset price busts will continue to rebuild

savings while struggling with high unemployment. The key policy requirements remain to restore financial sector health while maintaining supportive macroeconomic policies until the recovery is on a firm footing. However, policymakers need to begin preparing for an orderly unwinding of extraordinary levels of public intervention.

在經歷嚴重的全球衰退之後,由於多方面的公共干預支撐了需求,並降低了金融市場的不確定性和系統性風險,經濟成長轉負為正。預期復甦速度將會緩慢,因為金融體系仍然受到損害、來自公共政策的支持必須逐漸撤離、而處在資產價格泡沫破滅經濟體中的家計部門將必須在面對高失業率之際繼續重建儲蓄。在復甦奠定堅實基礎之前,主要政策要求仍將是恢復金融業部門健全性,同時保持支援性的總體經濟政策。然而,政策制定者也需要開始為有秩序地解除異常公共干預水準作準備。

 

Global Recession Is Ending, but a Subdued Recovery Lies Ahead

全球衰退正在結束,但未來復甦疲弱

 

The global economy appears to be expanding again, pulled up by the strong performance of Asian economies and stabilization or modest recovery elsewhere. In the advanced economies, unprecedented public intervention has stabilized activity and has even fostered a return to modest growth in several economies. Emerging and developing economies are generally further ahead on the road to recovery, led by a resurgence in Asia . The recent rebound in commodity prices and supportive policies are helping many of these economies. Many countries in emerging Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States have been hit particularly hard by the crisis, and developments in these economies are generally lagging those elsewhere.

在亞洲經濟體強勁表現以及其他地區持穩或溫和復甦的帶動下,全球經濟似乎再次擴張。在先進經濟體中,前所未有的公共干預已經穩定經濟活動,甚至促使若干經濟體恢復溫和成長。在亞洲經濟復甦引領下,新興和開發中經濟體普遍走在復甦的前端。近來原物料商品價格反彈以及支持性政策有助於許多這類的經濟體。新興歐洲和獨立國協中的許多國家受到這次危機特別嚴重的打擊,這些經濟體的狀況普遍落後於其他新興經濟體。

 

The pace of recovery is slow, and activity remains far below precrisis levels. The pickup is being led by a rebound in manufacturing and a turn in the inventory cycle, and there are some signs of gradually stabilizing retail sales, returning consumer confidence, and firmer housing markets. As prospects have improved, commodity prices have staged a comeback from lows reached earlier this year, and world trade is beginning to pick up.

復甦步伐緩慢,經濟活動依然遠遠低於危機前水準。在製造業反彈以及存貨循環出現轉折的帶動下,經濟出現回升,一些跡象顯示,零售銷售額逐漸穩定,消費者信心正在恢復,房屋市場也更穩定。隨著前景改善,原物料商品價格已從今年初的低水準重整旗鼓,國際貿易也開始好轉。

 

The triggers for this rebound are strong public policies across advanced and many emerging economies that have supported demand and all but eliminated fears of a global depression. These fears contributed to the steepest drop in global activity and trade since World War II. Central banks reacted quickly with exceptionally large interest rate cuts as well as unconventional measures to inject liquidity and sustain credit. Governments launched major fiscal stimulus programs while supporting banks with guarantees and capital injections. Together, these measures reduced uncertainty and increased confidence, fostering an improvement in financial conditions, as evidenced by strong rallies across many markets and a rebound of international capital flows. However, the environment remains very challenging for lower-tier borrowers. More generally, as emphasized in the October 2009 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), the risk of a reversal is a significant market concern, and a number of financial stress indicators remain elevated.

此次反彈的觸發因素是先進經濟體和許多新興經濟體所採取的強有力公共政策,這些政策支持了需求,同時也幾乎消除了對全球性衰退的憂慮。這類憂慮促成全球經濟活動和貿易出現了自第二次世界大戰以來最嚴重的下滑。各國中央銀行迅速採取因應措施,大幅度調降利率,並採取非常規手段注入流動性並維持授信。政府啟動了重大的財政刺激方案,同時以提供保證和注入資本方式對銀行提供支援。這些措施降低了不確定性,提升了信心,並促使金融情況得以改善,許多市場強勁回升和國際資本流動出現反彈就是例證。然而,對於信用等級較低的借款人來說,環境依然十分具有挑戰性。更廣義地說,正如200910月「全球金融穩定度報告」所強調者,發生逆轉的風險是市場的一個重大憂慮,一些金融壓力指標仍然很高。

 

Looking ahead, the policy forces that are driving the current rebound will gradually lose strength, and real and financial forces, although

gradually building, remain weak. Specifically, fiscal stimulus will diminish and inventory rebuilding will gradually lose its influence.

Meanwhile, consumption and investment are gaining strength only slowly, as financial conditions remain tight in many economies. Thus, after contracting by about 1 percent in 2009, global activity is forecast to expand by about 3 percent in 2010, which is well below the rates achieved before the crisis. These projections reflect modest upward revisions to those in the July 2009 WEO Update.

展望未來,帶動當前反彈的政策力量將逐漸減弱,實質經濟和金融力量雖在逐步積聚,但依然疲弱。詳言之,財政刺激將縮減,存貨重建也將逐步喪失影響力。同時,消費和投資也只是在緩慢恢復,因為許多經濟體的金融情況依然緊俏。因此,在2009 年下滑約1%之後,全球經濟活動預計將在2010年擴張約3%,這一水準遠低於危機前所達到的水準。這些預測值與20097月「世界經濟展望更新報告」相比,顯示小幅向上修正。

 

l   Advanced economies are projected to expand sluggishly through much of 2010, with unemployment continuing to rise until later in the year. Annual growth in 2010 is projected to be about 1¼ percent, following a contraction of 3½ percent in 2009. The recovery of activity is more clearly evident on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis: from 2009:Q4 to 2010:Q4, real GDP is expected to rise by about 1¾ percent, up from an expansion of about ½ percent (annualized) during the second half of 2009 and a 2 percent contraction in the first half.

l   整個2010年的大部分時間,先進經濟體預計將呈現疲弱擴張,在2010年下半年前,失業率仍將繼續攀升。繼2009年經濟收縮3½%後,預計2010年年成長率約為1¼%。第四季比較資料更清楚顯示經濟活動正在復甦:從2009年第四季到2010年第四季,實際GDP預計將成長約1¾%2009年下半年擴張幅度約為½%(年率),而上半年則萎縮2%

 

l   In emerging economies, real GDP growth is forecast to reach almost 5 percent in 2010, up from 1¾% percent in 2009. The rebound is driven by China , India , and a number of other emerging Asian economies. Other emerging economies are staging modest recoveries, supported by policy stimulus and improving global trade and financial conditions.

l   在新興經濟體中,2010年實質GDP成長預計將從2009年的1¾%上升到近5%。此輪反彈受中國、印度以及其他若干亞洲新興經濟體帶動。其他新興經濟體則在溫和復甦中,復甦受到政策刺激計畫、全球貿易和金融情況改善的支持。

 

Downside risks to growth are receding gradually but remain a concern. The main short-term risk is that the recovery will stall. Premature exit from accommodative monetary and fiscal policies seems a significant risk because the policy-induced rebound might be mistaken for the beginning of a strong recovery in private demand. In general, the fragile global economy still seems vulnerable to a range of shocks, including rising oil prices, a virulent return of H1N1 flu, geopolitical events, or resurgent protectionism.

經濟成長的下行風險正在逐漸減退,但仍是一個隱憂。主要短期風險是復甦將停滯。過早從寬鬆的貨幣和財政政策中退出似乎是一個重大風險,因為政策誘導下的反彈可能會被誤認為是民間需求開始強有力地復甦。總之,脆弱的全球經濟似乎仍容易受到一系列衝擊的影響,包括油價上漲、H1N1流感捲土重來、地緣政治事件、或保護主義重新抬頭。

 

However, short-term risks are not only on the downside, as evidenced by the recent, more-rapid-than-expected improvement in financial conditions. In particular, the policy-induced reduction in fears about a 1930s-style crash in activity and the accompanying strong rebound

in financial market sentiment might induce a larger-than-expected surge in consumption and investment across a number of advanced and emerging economies.

然而,短期風險並不只是顯現於下行風險,近來金融情況改善超過人們預期證明了這一點。特別是,政策誘導降低人們對經濟活動會出現20世紀30年代那樣的崩盤的憂慮,伴隨而來金融市場情緒的強力反彈,可能也會誘導許多先進和新興經濟體的消費和投資出現超過預期的大幅成長。

 

Extending the horizon to the medium term, there are other important risks to sustained recovery, mainly in the major advanced economies. On the financial front, a major concern is that continued public skepticism toward what is perceived as bailouts for the very firms considered responsible for the crisis undercuts public support for financial restructuring, thereby paving the way to a prolonged period of stagnation. On the macroeconomic policy front, the greatest risk

revolves around deteriorating fiscal positions, including as a result of measures to support the financial sector.

放眼中期,持續復甦之路,仍面臨其他重要風險,這主要存在先進經濟體中。在金融方面,一個主要的關切點是,社會大眾對拯救那些被認為正應對此次危機負責的金融機構,抱持懷疑態度,此將削弱社會大眾對金融重整的支持,從而為長期經濟停滯埋下伏筆。在總體經濟政策方面,最大的風險環繞在財政狀況惡化問題,包括支持金融業部門措施所導致者。

 

Beyond 2010: Rebalancing the Global Economy

2010年之後: 重新平衡全球經濟

 

Achieving sustained healthy growth over the medium term will depend critically on addressing the supply disruptions generated by the crisis and rebalancing the global pattern of demand.

在中期間實現可持續的健全成長,關鍵將取決於解決因危機而產生的供給中斷,以及重新平衡全球的需求型態。

 

Lower Potential Output

降低潛能產出

 

Financial firms will need to be restructured and markets repaired to deliver adequate credit for sustained increases in investment and productivity, while labor will need to be redeployed across sectors. Historical evidence presented in Chapter 4 indicates that there were

typically large, permanent hits to output in the aftermath of past financial crises, although the extent is difficult to determine and there have been a wide variety of outcomes. The current medium-term output projections are indeed on a much lower path than before the crisis, consistent with a permanent loss of potential output. Investment has already fallen sharply, especially in the economies hit by financial

and real estate crises. Together with rising scrap rates, as corporations go bankrupt or restructure, this is reducing effective capital stocks. In addition, unemployment rates are expected to remain at high levels over the medium term in a number of advanced economies.

需要重整金融機構和修復市場,以便為投資和生產力的持續增長提供適足的授信。同時,需要在各產業部門間重新部署勞動力。本報告第四章提出的歷史證據顯示,在以往金融危機過後,通常會對產出造成很大的永久性打擊,雖然其程度難以確定,結果也大不相同。目前的中期產出預測值的確比危機前降低很多,這符合潛能產出的永久性流失。投資已經大幅下滑,特別是在那些遭受金融和房地產危機打擊的經濟體中。隨著公司倒閉或重整,倒閉率上升,有效資本存量正在減少。此外,若干先進經濟體的失業率,在中期間預計仍將保持在高水準。

 

Demand-Side Rebalancing

重新平衡需求方面

 

To complement efforts to repair the supply side of economies, there must also be adjustments in the pattern of global demand in order to sustain a strong recovery. Specifically, many economies that have followed export-led growth strategies and have run current account surpluses will need to rely more on domestic demand and imports. This will help offset subdued domestic demand in economies that have typically run current account deficits and have experienced asset price

(stock or housing) busts, including the United States , the United Kingdom , parts of the euro area, and many emerging European economies.

To accommodate the shifts on the demand side, there will need to be changes on the supply side as well. This will require action on many fronts, including measures to repair financial systems, improve corporate governance and financial intermediation, support public investment, and reform social safety nets to lower precautionary saving. Even with a strong commitment by all countries to reform along these and other lines, however, this process of rebalancing global demand will be a drawn-out process and will need to be supported by greater exchange rate flexibility.

配合修復經濟體系供給面的努力,還必須調整全球需求型態,以便維持強有力的復甦。詳言之,許多採取出口導向經濟成長策略,擁有經常帳順差的經濟體,需要更依賴內需和進口。這將幫助那些通常出現經常帳逆差並經歷資產(股票或房屋)價格崩盤的經濟體,抵消其內需減弱的影響,包括美國、英國、部分歐元區國家,以及許多新興歐洲經濟體。為適應需求面的轉變,供給面也需要改變。這必須在多方面採取行動,包括採取措施修復金融體系、改善公司治理和金融中介功能、支持公共投資,以及改革社會安全網以便降低預防性儲蓄。然而,即使所有國家都堅決致力於順著這些或其他途徑進行改革,重新平衡全球需求的過程仍將是一個長期的過程,並需要獲得更大的匯率彈性的支援。

 

Policy Challenges

政策挑戰

 

The key policy priorities remain to restore the health of the financial sector and to maintain supportive macroeconomic policies until the recovery is on a firm footing, even though policymakers must also begin preparing for an eventual unwinding of extraordinary levels of public intervention. The premature withdrawal of stimulus seems the greater risk in the near term, but developing the medium-term macroeconomic strategy beyond the crisis is key for maintaining confidence in fiscal solvency and for price and financial stability. The challenge is to map a middle course between unwinding public interventions too early, which would jeopardize the progress made in securing financial stability and recovery, and leaving these measures in place too long, which carries the risk of distorting incentives and damaging public balance sheets.

固然政策制定者也必須為最終解除異常的公共干預水準預作準備,但在復甦奠定堅實基礎之前,最優先的政策重點依然是恢復金融業部門的健全性,並維持支援性總體經濟政策。在近期內,過早撤銷刺激措施似乎是比較大的風險,但是,制定延伸到危機過後的中期總體經濟策略,是保持對財政償債能力的信心、維持物價和金融穩定的關鍵。我們所面臨的挑戰是,在過早解除公共干預(會危及在確保金融穩定和復甦方面所取得的進展),與過久地保留這些措施(會有扭曲誘因的風險,並損傷公共部門資產負債表)之間,尋求一條中道。

 

Timing the Tightening of Accommodative Monetary Conditions

收縮寬鬆貨幣情況的時機

 

The key issues facing monetary policymakers are when to start tightening and how to unwind large central bank balance sheets. The two objectives do not necessarily present major conflicts, because instruments exist to start tightening monetary conditions even while balance sheets remain much larger than usual. The pace at which the buildup in central bank balance sheets should be unwound depends on progress in normalizing market conditions and the types of interventions in place.

貨幣政策制定者面臨的關鍵問題是,何時開始緊縮以及如何解除龐大的中央銀行資產負債表。這兩個目標並不一定會有重大衝突,因為有工具可以在資產負債表仍比平時大很多的同時,開始緊縮貨幣情況。放緩中央銀行資產負債表累積的步伐,取決於市場狀況正常化方面的進展及現有干預的類型。

 

Regarding the timing of monetary policy tightening, advanced and emerging economies face different challenges. In advanced economies, central banks can (with few exceptions) afford to maintain accommodative conditions for an extended period because inflation is likely to remain subdued as long as output gaps remain wide. Moreover, monetary policymakers will need to accommodate the impact of the gradual withdrawal of fiscal support. The situation is more varied across emerging economies; in a number of these economies it will likely be appropriate to start removing monetary accommodation sooner than in advanced economies. In some economies, warding off risks for new asset price bubbles may call for greater exchange rate flexibility, to allow monetary policy tightening to avoid importing an excessively easy policy stance from the advanced economies.

在緊縮貨幣政策的時機方面,先進經濟體和新興經濟體面臨不同的挑戰。在先進經濟體中,中央銀行(除少數例外情況外)有能力在更長時間內維持寬鬆的情況,因為只要產出缺口依然很大,物價膨脹率很可能維持疲軟。此外,貨幣政策制定者需要減緩逐漸撤銷財政支持所帶來的衝擊。新興經濟體的情況,差異比較大;許多新興經濟體很可能適於比先進經濟體更早撤銷寬鬆的貨幣情況。在某些經濟體中,為了防範新的資產價格泡沫風險,可能必須提高匯率彈性,才能緊縮貨幣政策,並避免從先進經濟體輸入過度寬鬆的貨幣政策態度。

 

As the October 2009 GFSR emphasizes, continued central bank support will likely be needed through at least next year in many economies, and it could take much longer to unwind the buildup in illiquid assets on some central bank balance sheets. In the meantime, central banks have tools available to absorb reserves as needed to tighten monetary conditions. Looking beyond the short-term challenges, what are some lessons of the crisis for conducting monetary policy? Historical evidence suggests that relatively stable inflation and output growth offer little protection against major shocks to the economy from bursting asset price bubbles: output and inflation are poor predictors of asset price busts. Chapter 3 shows that other variables, notably credit growth and the current account balance, are better predictors and may deserve more attention from monetary policymakers. Thus, if concerns mount about domestic demand and asset prices, monetary policymakers should consider tightening more than required purely for the purpose of keeping inflation under control over the coming year or two. The chapter also argues that policymakers should consider complementing inflation targeting with the introduction of macroprudential tools to help stabilize economies. Macroprudential

tools have the advantage of working directly to lean against credit cycles and can therefore be helpful in complementing the role of interest

rates in stabilizing economies. Expectations of what can be achieved, however, need to be realistic.

正如200910月「全球金融穩定度報告」所強調者,在許多經濟體中,中央銀行的支持很可能需要至少持續明年一整年,且有些中央銀行可能需要更長的時間去解除資產負債表中積累的缺乏流動性資產。同時,各中央銀行具有可運用的工具,在必要時用來吸收準備貨幣以緊縮貨幣情況。除短期挑戰外,此次危機為貨幣政策執行帶來了什麼教訓?歷史證據顯示,相當穩定的物價膨脹率和產出成長,無法防範資產價格泡沫破滅為經濟所帶來的重大衝擊,產出和物價膨脹率是較差的資產價格崩盤預測指標。本報告第三章說明,其他變數(特別是授信成長和經常帳差額)才是較好的預測指標,或許更值得貨幣政策制定者關注。因此,如果對國內需求和資產價格的憂慮增加,貨幣政策制定者應考慮加大緊縮力度,而不只是侷限在純粹想要控制今後一兩年內的物價膨脹率所需範圍內。本章還主張政策制定者應考慮引進總體金融監理工具來補充設定物價上漲目標貨幣政策。總體金融監理工具具有直接著重處理授信循環的優點,因此有助於補充利率在穩定經濟中的角色。然而,對可能達成目標的期待必須務實。

 

Maintaining Fiscal Support while Safeguarding Fiscal Sustainability

在保障財政可持續性的同時,繼續維持財政支持

 

Notwithstanding already large deficits and rising public debt in many countries, fiscal stimulus needs to be sustained until the recovery is on a firm footing and may need to be amplified or extended beyond current plans if downside risks to growth materialize. Governments should thus stand ready to roll out new initiatives as necessary. At the same time, they need to commit to large reductions in deficits once the recovery is on a solid footing and must start addressing long-term

fiscal challenges by advancing reforms to put public finances on a more sustainable path. The achievement of such reductions could usefully be supported with more robust fiscal frameworks, including suitable fiscal rules and strong enforcement mechanisms. Such frameworks and rules can play helpful roles in reining in spending pressures when good

times return, thereby providing a degree of reassurance to investors that deficits and debt eventually will be rolled back. This is essential to again create significant room for countercyclical policy and rebuild public support for financial markets, both of which will be needed to respond to future shocks.

儘管許多國家都已有巨額財政赤字和日益增加的公共債務,但是,在復甦奠定堅實基礎之前,仍必須維持財政刺激計畫。如果經濟成長的下行風險變成事實,那麼現行計畫可能需要進一步擴大或延長。因此,如有必要,政府應隨時準備推出新的措施。同時,一旦復甦奠定牢固基礎,他們需要致力於大規模削減赤字,並必須推動改革,開始著手解決長期財政挑戰,以便使公共財政更具可持續性。更穩健財政的架構,可能有助於削減赤字的達成,包括適當的財政規則和強有力的執行機制。這樣的架構和規則有助於在經濟好轉時控制支出壓力,因而得以提供投資者某種程度的保證,即赤字和債務終將減少。這是再次為逆循環政策提供重要空間,以及重建社會大眾對金融市場的支持的必要條件,而兩者都是因應未來衝擊所不可或缺者。

 

Healing Financial Sectors while Reforming Prudential Frameworks

在改革金融監理架構的同時癒合金融業部門

 

Completing financial sector repair and reforming prudential frameworks are indispensable for a return to sustained growth. Restructuring financial firms’ activities is key to a resumption of normal lending. As explained in more depth in the October 2009 GFSR, this will require balance sheet cleansing, recapitalization, and new business plans that

are consistent with new funding models and new prudential frameworks. So far, there has been only very limited progress in removing impaired assets from bank balance sheets. The main challenge now is ongoing deterioration of asset quality. In this regard, official stress tests are important instruments through which the condition of banks can be diagnosed in order to design appropriate strategies for the recapitalization and restructuring of viable banks and for the careful resolution of nonviable banks. On this front, progress across countries has been uneven, and it is a source of concern that support for recapitalization faces political obstacles. Exit strategies need to

be clearly articulated to help guide markets. Banks face a “wall of maturities” in the next two years, increasing rollover risks. In this setting, programs need to be phased out very gradually, using market-based incentives to encourage reduced reliance on public support.

完成金融業部門修復工作、改革金融監理架構,是恢復可持續成長所不可或缺的。重整金融機構業務是恢復正常放款的關鍵所在。如同在200910月「全球金融穩定度報告」中所深入說明的,這需要清理資產負債表、重新注資、以及擬訂與新融資模式和新金融監理架構一致的新營業計畫。目前,在清理銀行資產負債表受損資產方面,進展十分有限現在面臨的主要挑戰是資產質量持續惡化的問題。在此方面,官方壓力測試是重要的工具,透過壓力測試可以診斷銀行狀況,以便設計適當策略,為有生存能力的銀行重新注資和重整,以及審慎清理無法存續銀行。在這方面,各國所取得的進展並不均衡,令人憂慮的一個來源在於,對重新注資的支持面臨政治障礙。退出戰略必須予以闡明以協助引導市場。銀行在未來兩年將面臨一道「到期圍牆」,從而增加展期風險。在這種情況下,撤銷各種支援計畫需要循序漸進,同時利用以市場為基礎的誘因來鼓勵減少對公共支援的依賴。

 

Regarding fundamental reform, the achievement of a major overhaul must not be jeopardized by growing confidence that the greatest crisis dangers are past, fears that national competitive advantages might be lost, or concerns that first-best solutions are out of reach for technical reasons. As the October 2009 GFSR emphasizes, four challenges deserve particular attention. First, the perimeter of regulation needs to be broadened and made more flexible, covering all systemically important institutions alongside incentives to preclude further buildup of institutions currently considered “too big or too connected

to fail.” Second, effective market discipline needs to be encouraged through greater transparency and disclosure and reform of governance in financial institutions. Third, macroprudential frameworks must induce banks to build more buffers -- by raising capital and making provisions in good times that can be used in bad times. And, fourth,

international collaboration and coordination need to be improved to adequately cope with the challenges posed by cross-border institutions.

在基本面改革方面,重大調整措施的達成一定不能受到以下的危害,即人們日益相信最嚴重危機的危險已經過去、害怕國家競爭力優勢可能會喪失、或憂慮最佳解決方案可能會因技術原因而無法實現。正如200910月「全球金融穩定度報告」所強調者,有四個挑戰特別值得關注。首先,需要擴大金融監理的範圍,並使之更具彈性。金融監理應涵蓋所有具有系統重要性的機構,並配合誘因機制,不讓那些目前被認為「太大或關聯性太強而不能倒閉」的機構進一步增加。第二,需要透過提高金融機構透明度、揭露機制,以及改革內部治理,來鼓勵有效的市場紀律。第三,總體金融監理架構必須引導銀行建構更多的緩衝機制,藉由籌集資本並在經濟景氣好的時期提存準備,以便在經濟景氣不佳時得以使用。第四,需要改進國際合作和協調機制,以便能適切因應跨國機構所帶來的挑戰。

 

Structural and Social Policy Challenges

結構改革和社會政策的挑戰

 

Rising unemployment will present a major challenge in many advanced economies, and poverty will continue to challenge many developing economies. The evidence in Chapter 4 suggests that unemployment rates

typically tend to rise significantly and remain higher for many years after financial shocks. Limiting the extent of job destruction will

require slower wage growth or even wage cuts for many workers. The impact of the necessary adjustments on poorer segments of the labor force could be cushioned with earned income tax credits or similar programs that limit the social repercussions of wage adjustment. In addition, better job matching and education and training can help limit job and wage losses. Poverty could increase significantly in a number of developing economies, notably in sub-Saharan Africa , where real GDP per capita is contracting in 2009 for the first time in a decade. Continued donor support from advanced economies will be crucial if these economies are to sustain hard-won macroeconomic stability gains.

日益增加的失業問題將成為許多先進經濟體面對的重大挑戰,同時,貧窮將繼續對許多開發中經濟體構成挑戰。第四章中提出的證據顯示,金融衝擊過後,失業率通常趨於大幅上升,並在未來許多年仍保持在較高水準。若要限制工作機會流失的程度,必須放緩工資的成長,或甚至削減許多工人的工資。這些必要調整措施對勞動力中較貧窮人口的衝擊,可以透過所得稅退稅或其他可以減緩工資調整所引起社會反彈的類似制度,予以紓解。此外,更好的工作機會媒合和教育訓練,有助於緩和工作機會和工資的流失。在若干開發中國家,貧窮人口可能會顯著增加,撒哈拉以南的非洲尤其值得注意,2009年該地區平均每人實質GDP出現10年來首次收縮。如果這些經濟體要維持來之不易的總體經濟穩定成就,先進經濟體繼續提供的捐助將極為重要。